Modelling
Computer modelling
Our team has a wealth of expertise in modelling the effects of policies and other interventions on tobacco smoking and alcohol consumption. Our Sheffield Tobacco and Alcohol Policy Modelling Platform (STAPM) will be used to create a new computer simulation model based on our findings from the QUIT service evaluation.
We're doing this for two core reasons:
to support the future planning and improvement of the QUIT service
to inform the implementation of similar stop smoking services in other NHS hospitals
Data used in the models
We will use various aspects of the QUIT service evaluation to build a computer simulation model of the service, including:
our understanding of how patients flow through the service
feedback from interviews, workshops and surveys
data on quitting outcomes
the costs of implementing and running the service
We will also link this to local and national survey evidence from the Smoking Toolkit Study and the Annual Population Survey on smoking rates and outcomes for quitting several years after people leave hospital.
Model outcomes
Once the model is set up we can estimate the number of quits that are a direct result of support from the QUIT hospital-based service, along with any inequalities in outcomes.
We will also use the Sheffield Tobacco Policy Model to link the number of quits to the long-term health consequences of smoking.
Another strength of the modelling approach is that we can simulate the impacts of different "what if" scenarios about how changes to the service might potentially bring improvements for the rate of quitting and the long-term health and economic outcomes of the programme.
This information can help to build business cases to enable individual hospitals within South Yorkshire and Bassetlaw to go ahead and implement improvements.
Supporting stop-smoking services in other hospitals
Crucially, we are also able to use the model to make estimates for other hospitals around the country. These are capable of showing how similar stop smoking services might impact the smoking rates and long-term health of people in their local areas.
If you'd like to talk to us about how our modelling could support your organisation to implement a stop smoking service, please contact project lead Duncan Gillespie at the University of Sheffield.
